The Best Long Shot Bets in Horse Racing Handicapping and Betting

In case you missed it, and I don't know how you would with all the media coverage, Big Brown, the favorite to win the Belmont, didn't win, in fact, he didn't finish the race. The horse who was the longest price on the board won the race. In Remco Movieland Drive-In words, the biggest long shot. Many people were shocked by the results, but for professionals who make a living at horse Blythe doll handicapping, it was no big surprise.

Long shots win all the time, why should a big race like the Belmont be any different? Perhaps all the media hype about the favorite had something to do with the shock, along with the fact that there were many casual race goers who played the race. Many Viagra cocktail them thought they were betting on a sure thing. Welcome to the world of horse racing. It isn't that easy as any one who has been horse racing handicapping and betting for very long can tell you.

Favorites win about a third of the time. Many of the races that aren't won by the favorite are won by a horse that is considered a contender and is going off at reasonable odds but isn't considered a long shot. The rest of the races are won by long shots. When a long shot comes out of the clouds and beats the horse you have bet on, it comes as a shock and is an unpleasant feeling. But when you have bet on the long shot and win big money, it is another story. That is one of the best thrills in horse racing betting.

Now all long shots are not created equally. The horse that won the Belmont, Da'Tara, was a well bred horse, trained by a great trainer, Nick Zito. But Da'Tara had only won one other race in his very short racing career and the favorite, Big Brown, had won all five of his races including two legs of the triple crown. How could you possibly bet on a horse like that against such a prohibitive favorite? Well first of all, no one said you had to bet on him, but there were some very compelling reasons if you dug deep enough.

First of all, the favorite had never raced that distance. The favorite had been in two very hard races within a matter of weeks. The favorite had hoof problems. The Belmont is famous for burying favorites. Nick Zito is famous for winning the Belmont with a favorite. You see, there are long shots and then there are long shots. The important thing to ask yourself when considering a long shot, is this, "If this race was run 100 times, how many of those times would the favorite win and how many would some other horse in the race win?" Then ask yourself this, "If some other horse in this race is going to beat the favorite, which horse in this field has some factors that indicate it has a chance?" Finally, compare the number of times you think the other horse, the long shot, could win and compare that with the odds. At 38-1, the odds on Da'Tara, the horse would only have to win 3 races out of 100 to show a profit.

The odds on Big Brown were 1-4. That means that Big Brown would have to win the race 81 out of 100 times to show a modest profit for anyone who bet on him. Do you now see how a long shot can become a good bet and a favorite, despite the hype, can be a lousy bet? Horse racing handicapping and betting isn't rocket science but like many things in life, with a good system and some common sense, you can be a winner if you don't mind bucking the crowd and thinking for yourself.

Longshots are the best bets when you know how to rate them with Bill's Longshot Rater at williewins.homestead.comwilliewins.homestead.com - Bill has been around Horse racing for 50 years and knows how to spot a good bet and loves to teach others. He is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood" To see all Bill's horse racing material go to williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.htmlwilliewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html - Bill's handicapping store